Professor Naomi Chazan spoke to a
New Israel Fund audience at Chatham house
2nd February 2006

Professor Chazan spoke about the unstoppable changes that are taking place in Israel and Palestine. Professor Chazan emphasised the intensity of the situation by stating that she is afraid to sleep at night for fear of missing some of the action. Unfortunately not all the changes are positive. The key question is which changes are imminent , and how can we monitor them?. The elections appear to be a clear way of observing and assessing these changes.

In the first place, over the past two years Sharon has adopted a policy of unilateralism, leading to the disengagement. This, in turn, has led to a few feathers being ruffled. Apart from implementing widely controversial policies, Sharon changed the shape of the political scene. He left Likud, his own political party, and formed a new party – Kadima, (meaning forward). He then dispersed the Knesset and called for early elections. Where traditionally there would have been two main parties, the introduction of the Kadima party heralds the first tri partied contest in decades with the front-runner being Kadima.

The second major development pointed out by Chazan, is that , in these elections the ‘old guard’ composed mainly of veteran military men are no longer key players in Israeli politics. These elections denote the change from old to new and the new players, Amir Peretz, Ehud Olmert and even Binyamin Netanyahu are young men in their fifties who are not particularly renowned for their military past, nor do they derive their main source of authority in political issues from their military service.

Professor Chazan spoke about the changing substance in Israeli politics within civil rights and liberties. There appears to be a new, politically central public opinion, deriving from the fact that people want to lead normal lives with normal concerns. (The coming elections are about the boundaries of the state of Israel, and therefore they are political in the true sense of the word, and have a profound effect on ordinary citizen’s every day lives.) (I’m not sure how this sentence relates to the previous point about Israelis?)

Professor Chazan urged the audience to see this time as a refreshing period for Israeli politics. People really want these changes, so much so that the transition of power between Sharon who was taken seriously ill and Ehud Olmert has transpired almost seamlessly, indicating a great deal of continuity and faith in these elections: they are more about real policies than about the individual players.

Professor Chazan spoke briefly about the recent Palestinian elections. Up until the results the two elections mirrored each other in process and players, especially in the shift from ‘old’ to ‘new guard’. However, the results have surprised everyone and according to Chazan have come about for several reasons.

Firstly, people underestimated the dissatisfaction of the Palestinian people. The action of going to the ballot box provided the forum for people to express their dissatisfaction. It seems that Hamas was not necessarily the favourite party, but rather that people were fed up with the current situation. Secondly, Hamas promised order where previously there had been none. The third reason, which is technical, and has to do with the method of the elections themselves, gave Hamas the overall advantage. The electoral system was partly based on local votes. In the local elections, Fatah put up several candidates, whereas Hamas only advanced one. This split the votes between the Fatah voters thus giving a technical advantage to the Hamas candidate. This point, however, does not detract from the fact that Hamas won - rather it provides further explanation.

Having elected Hamas the question buzzing around government is - what next?

What will the Palestinian government look like? What are the policy guidelines?, ie. Will it accept a two state solution, will they even talk to Israel? Will Hamas renounce terror and try and control Islamic Jihad? It is the answers to these questions that will determine whether Hamas can be a successful partner for Israel.

The over-riding question is what effect will this have on the Israeli election?. Professor Chazan suggested that, the two are deeply intertwined. However, it was her opinion that although the election of Hamas will be used in the run up to the Israeli elections it will in fact not alter the final outcome.

Fundamentally the interests and aspirations of both the Israeli’s and Palestinians have not changed a great deal. Israel wants security for a Jewish state, the Palestinians want to end occupation. For there to be a resolution there must be negotiation. The down side to all this is that initiating negotiation has become even more complicated than in the past and it is now even more important not to make mistakes that will trigger a negative reaction from the other side.

Once again, New Israel Fund provided for its supporters an in depth and unique perspective into Israeli politics, delivered by a charismatic and well-loved supporter of the organisation.